US November election could produce crisis

Significance

Protests and partisan divisions are rife. The COVID-19 pandemic is forcing changes to how the elections will work, with some states promoting postal voting that President Donald Trump claims is a recipe for fraud. The final result could differ decisively from that reported on election night. A smooth transition rests on one candidate conceding defeat.

Impacts

• President Donald Trump could again win the Electoral College but lose the popular vote.
• Delays to counting mail-in ballots may mean one candidate appears to have a wide lead that subsequently vanishes.
• The Supreme Court may have to arbitrate the election result.
• The election result could trigger widescale protests, whether Trump or Biden wins.