Tensions may rise in Zanzibar ahead of Tanzanian polls

Significance

The ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party is all but guaranteed to secure victory on the mainland, most likely increasing its majority in the national assembly on the way. However, the vote in the semi-autonomous Zanzibar region -- comprising Unguja and Pemba islands -- is likely to be close and potentially highly fraught.

Impacts

• The electoral commission’s disqualification of multiple opposition candidates could have a major impact if not overturned on appeal.
• Should irregularities occur, there could be a scenario where both sides publicly claim victory.
• The international community may respond to significant irregularities by freezing some aid but is unlikely to go much further.