Haqqani guerrillas may divorce from Afghan Taliban

Significance

Moves to marginalise the Haqqani group indicate that it is losing the support of external sponsors Saudi Arabia and, to an extent, Pakistan.

Impacts

• The reputational costs of moving against the Haqqanis shows the Taliban are serious about making the troubled peace process work.
• The Haqqani group's immediate problem will be money as its Saudi, Pakistani and Taliban funding withers.
• IS in Afghanistan, currently on the wane, could get a second chance of survival through a merger deal.