Tajik election may be president's last before handover

Significance

The decision to hold the election on October 11, a month earlier than scheduled, may be intended to pre-empt employment and energy problems, both likely to worsen before year-end.

Impacts

• A wave of arrests of opposition figures is likely ahead of the election, despite them posing no threat.
• Completion of the Roghun hydroelectric scheme, seen as the eventual solution to Tajikistan's energy shortages, is within sight.
• Despite economic problems, Rahmon still shows no inclination to join the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union.