Biden win would improve Mexico relations

Significance

Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) has strived to maintain cordial relations with incumbent US President Donald Trump, despite his aggressive rhetoric towards Mexico. A Biden win would improve bilateral relations significantly.

Impacts

• Biden’s interest in Mexico may stretch beyond trade and the border to a wider range of issues, leading AMLO to see him as interventionist.
• A Republican-dominated US Senate would increase attention on issues of interest to businesses, such as investor-state dispute settlement.
• Any easing of the US-China trade war could weaken the perceived urgency of the need to re-shore supply chains, to the detriment of Mexico.
• Mexico’s economic dependence on the United States will ensure AMLO maintains a pragmatic approach towards any bilateral disputes.