Diverging views of China will hinder Thai-US alliance

Significance

Thailand is a treaty ally of the United States and occupies an important geostrategic location in mainland South-east Asia, a key theatre of US-China rivalry. Bangkok has burgeoning relations with Beijing.

Impacts

• Thailand’s military-backed government will refuse to give in to popular demands for political reform.
• As the government struggles to cope with the fallout of COVID-19, the outlook for the Thai economy will remain bleak.
• Domestic problems will prevent Thailand from exercising leadership in regional forums such as ASEAN.