Israel-UAE deal will expand existing security ties

Significance

The US-brokered deal reflects Washington’s priorities in fostering regional partnerships against Iran and in upgrading Israel’s relationships in the Gulf (ostensibly as a step towards resolving the conflict with the Palestinians).

Impacts

• There is speculation an accord could be signed as early as next month, but this may be delayed by the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Washington will seek to strong-arm other Arab states, notably Sudan, Bahrain and Oman, into following the UAE’s example.
• The agreement provides cover for Netanyahu to abort already troubled plans to annex parts of the West Bank.
• Netanyahu’s exclusion of coalition partners and security officials from talks has raised further public concern over his trustworthiness.
• In Israel, the deal remains overshadowed by preoccupations with the pandemic’s health and economic consequences.