Biden would face early tests of US resolve abroad

Significance

If Trump is re-elected, his foreign policy will continue in the same vein as his first term. If Biden wins, he is likely -- as other new presidents have -- to have his foreign policy convictions and determination tested by adversarial states.

Impacts

• Biden will reverse the ‘America First’ foreign policy, but relationships with adversaries will change less dramatically.
• China would be conciliatory if Biden wins but also test him, though military activity would be calibrated to avoid escalation.
• Biden would be tougher on North Korea, conditioning diplomacy and concessions on denuclearisation progress.
• Iran would welcome re-engagement on nuclear issues under Biden but would watch his US-Israel policy carefully.
• Biden’s Russia and Ukraine policies would be similar to Congress’s and Trump’s, including on sanctions.