Italy’s coalition faces important election tests

Significance

This is mostly thanks to the significant decrease in COVID-19 cases in Italy and Rome obtaining relatively low-risk financial support from the EU to reboot the economy. Also, League party leader Matteo Salvini has been unable to offer a convincing alternative plan to handle COVID-19.

Impacts

• The elections would be postponed only if there was a substantial surge in COVID-19 cases in the six regions due to vote.
• The upcoming elections will be the first major test of support for the far right since the COVID-19 outbreak.
• Business confidence is likely to suffer if coalition instability increases speculation of early national elections.