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Lifting COVID-19 measures may hit resilient eastern EU

Monday, August 10, 2020

Significance

Available second-quarter data indicate a shallower recession in most of the eleven eastern EU member states (EU-11) than the rest of the EU in January-June. This may be due to a strong start in January-February, followed by strict but shorter lockdowns and macroeconomic measures introduced to smooth the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact. However, the number of cases is still a concern.

Impacts

  • Projections for economic recovery in the second part of the year will be subject to downside risks.
  • European solidarity will likely continue to be tested by political controversy over the rule of law.
  • A European-wide vision for green, digital transformation and resilience may emerge.

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