Wednesday, August 5, 2020
Regional and global powers will determine whether there will be conflict around the city of Sirte, the scale of the fighting, the short-term future of Libya's oil industry, and the contours of the diplomatic process that will resolve these various quandaries.
- The UN’s marginalisation will continue, and Europe will also fade as a broker.
- Libyan oil output will be unpredictable, as it is a way for external powers to influence the conflict.
- European energy companies (such as ENI, Repsol and Wintershall) could lose market share to state-aligned companies of intervening players.
- Cairo could see itself jostled into an intervention with no clear scope.