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Russia-Turkey aim to freeze Libya but others will stir

Wednesday, August 5, 2020

Significance

Regional and global powers will determine whether there will be conflict around the city of Sirte, the scale of the fighting, the short-term future of Libya's oil industry, and the contours of the diplomatic process that will resolve these various quandaries.

Impacts

  • The UN’s marginalisation will continue, and Europe will also fade as a broker.
  • Libyan oil output will be unpredictable, as it is a way for external powers to influence the conflict.
  • European energy companies (such as ENI, Repsol and Wintershall) could lose market share to state-aligned companies of intervening players.
  • Cairo could see itself jostled into an intervention with no clear scope.
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