New Zealand’s election looms as COVID-19 recedes

Significance

The economy is recovering fast, while it has been weeks since a case of COVID-19 was acquired within New Zealand from an unknown source. The country’s challenge now is determining how to reintegrate with other countries still facing severe COVID-19 levels.

Impacts

• Ardern is likely to win re-election, should COVID-19 remain at bay, on September 19.
• To welcome international students back and increase overseas workers, New Zealand will need to expand managed isolation capacity.
• New Zealand is more likely to form travel bubbles with COVID-19-free Australian states, rather than all Australia.
• There could be an unemployment spike later this year, as government wage subsidies wind down.
• The central bank will likely provide further monetary stimulus by expanding quantitative easing in August.