Syria’s weakened al-Qaida remnants may act as spoilers

Significance

Ansar al-Islam is part of ‘Be Steadfast’ (Fathbutu), a coalition of al-Qaida-linked groups formed in June. Meanwhile, the dominant rebel force in the north, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which has moved away from its al-Qaida roots, is seeking to prevent the new alliance from conducting independent military operations.

Impacts

• Damascus’s next offensive could potentially push towards Idlib’s provincial capital, threatening HTS’s ‘Salvation Government’.
• Renewed fighting in Idlib would result in significant casualties and wide-scale displacement.
• Future US airstrikes will target Be Steadfast commanders and largely ignore HTS.