Covert Iran-Israel clashes could spiral out of control

Significance

The incident, which is being widely attributed to Israel, is part of a series of unexplained fires and explosions at sensitive military and industrial sites. It follows heightened tensions in Syria and tit-for-tat cyberattacks in early 2020.

Impacts

• Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu will seek to discourage Trump from fresh talks with Iran before US November polls.
• Israel may seize the opportunity to launch further attacks on Iranian interests in Syria.
• Syrian operations are unlikely to result in an uncontrolled escalation unless Lebanese Hezbollah chooses to raise the stakes.