Egypt will retrench to its 'buffer' aim in Libya

Significance

Haftar’s bid to take control of the capital Tripoli and the rest of Libya ended abruptly in May, after Turkey intervened in support of his adversary, the internationally recognised Government of National Accord (GNA). This reverse places Egyptian intervention on the back foot. Egyptian policy centres on securing a long common border from jihadist infiltration, but also reflects a deep-rooted desire to shape developments and to some extent exert control, following decades of close relations and intelligence-sharing.

Impacts

• Egypt and Russia back the same side in Libya, but eastern Mediterranean gas would compete with Russia.
• Russia has taken a central role in Libya’s conflict, and its interests would displace Egypt’s.
• A battle is looming for Sirte and Jufra, and its outcome could radically shift geopolitical calculations again.
• A GNA takeover of Sirte and Jufra could leave Egypt with a weaker negotiating hand.