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India and China will avoid war but grow further apart

Tuesday, June 23, 2020

Significance

The violence broke out despite ongoing bilateral talks to resolve a border stand-off. Delhi and Beijing are blaming each other for the crisis but also affirming their commitment to de-escalation.

Impacts

  • India will see a rise in popular movements to boycott Chinese goods.
  • China will try to strengthen its relationships with India's neighbouring countries in the hope of isolating Delhi politically.
  • Delhi will tighten its security relationship with Washington, Tokyo and Canberra as it tries to push back on Beijing's regional influence.
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