India and China will avoid war but grow further apart

Significance

The violence broke out despite ongoing bilateral talks to resolve a border stand-off. Delhi and Beijing are blaming each other for the crisis but also affirming their commitment to de-escalation.

Impacts

• India will see a rise in popular movements to boycott Chinese goods.
• China will try to strengthen its relationships with India's neighbouring countries in the hope of isolating Delhi politically.
• Delhi will tighten its security relationship with Washington, Tokyo and Canberra as it tries to push back on Beijing's regional influence.