Halt to EU migration is likely to be temporary

Subject

Pandemic effect on migration to the EU.

Significance

The European Asylum Support Office (EASO) noted in mid-May a dramatic 43% decline in asylum applications to EU member states in March, correlated with the stringency of the lockdown measures deployed across the EU. Migrant arrivals via irregular means in the EU dwindled in March and April, with a 64% fall from January and February, and at at a time when arrivals would be expected to increase as warmer weather conditions facilitate travel. Nonetheless, migratory movement may merely be on hold as the countries of origin, transit and destination battle with the pandemic.

Impacts

• Pandemic-related food shortages and security problems in some countries of origin may prompt further migratory movement.
• Turkish foreign policy objectives could affect migratory movement on the border with Greece.
• Economic and political turmoil in European countries may reduce asylum seekers' chances of success.