Hong Kong security law will trigger fierce backlash

Subject

The impact of Beijing introducing national security legislation for Hong Kong.

Significance

China’s central government is using a process that bypasses Hong Kong’s legislature to pass a law that criminalises ‘sedition’ in Hong Kong and allows mainland state security organs to operate there. This will reduce the scope of political freedoms and autonomy in Hong Kong.

Impacts

• Activist and confrontational factions within the protest movement will probably gain more influence over moderate elements.
• A legislative election on September 6 is likely to proceed as planned; opposition candidates will probably do well.
• Western governments, firms and NGOs will feel pressure to lower their stakes in Hong Kong.
• Mainland Chinese firms will probably fill the vacuum, tying Hong Kong’s economy more closely to the mainland’s.
• Regional cities such as Singapore, Tokyo and Taipei will probably benefit.