Chad military action has not ended jihadist threat

Subject

Security update

Significance

In late March, Chadian forces launched a military assault on Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) in the Lake Chad region, renewing Chad’s reputation as a more decisive military power than most of its neighbours. Yet the campaign has also evoked questions about transparency and about Chad’s role within the long-term regional fight against the two jihadist groups. Meanwhile, Chad is bracing for the COVID-19 pandemic, especially its economic impact.

Impacts

• COVID-19 may benefit jihadists by allowing them to regroup while governments are distracted.
• The virus could also kill jihadist fighters and supporters and undercut their revenue.
• Chad would be unlikely to pull back troops from foreign commitments that France supports, such as in Mali or G5 Sahel.