Erdogan may emerge from pandemic even stronger

Significance

Official figures give Turkey a case fatality rate of 2.7% or 49 deaths per million, well below Western European figures and by no means the catastrophe predicted by outside observers. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is leaving his health minister to handle the crisis. He himself is showing no sign of changing course on foreign policy, although at home he is intensifying attacks on the opposition well ahead of elections due in 2023.

Impacts

• The prospects for a currency shock are strong.
• Plans to reopen Turkey for tourism will not save the sector this season.
• With 100,000 convicts released from prison, the crime rate will rise.