Yemeni separatists may be forced back to the table

Subject

Consequences of self-rule declaration.

Significance

The secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC) on April 25 declared self-rule in southern governorates. Last summer, clashes erupted between the STC and forces affiliated with President Abd Rabbu Mansur Hadi’s internationally recognised government, prompting intensive Saudi diplomacy that led to a peace agreement signed in Riyadh in November. Both sides have been reluctant to implement that deal, and the STC has now walked away from it entirely. So far, Saudi mediation has prevented recent fighting in Socotra from escalating and provoking further clashes elsewhere in the south. Hadi and the STC are nominally aligned with the Arab coalition fighting the Huthis, led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), but are hostile to each another.

Impacts

• The Huthis would exploit any confrontation by intensifying operations in Dhala and Lahij and the centre of the country.
• The UAE, which supports the STC politically and financially, will prioritise preserving its relations with Saudi Arabia.
• The dispute will exacerbate the potentially devastating impact of COVID-19 on a country whose defences are already weak.
• The Saudis may be recruiting for new security units in parts of the south, perhaps to offset the influence of pro-STC Security Belt forces.