Kim health rumours highlight underrated risk factor

Subject

The threat to North Korea's political stability were supreme leader Kim Jong-un to die.

Significance

Seoul and Beijing both insist all is normal in North Korea, contrary to unattributed news reports -- which the United States and others are monitoring -- that supreme leader Kim Jong-un is gravely ill after heart surgery. Last seen on April 11, Kim missed a key anniversary on April 15.

Impacts

• March was a record month for missile tests, but all were small; intercontinental ballistic missile or nuclear tests are too risky for now.
• A COVID-19 epidemic would dent lingering hopes of life improving under Kim.
• New prestige projects with tight deadlines will impose additional hardship.
• Despite sharply reduced bilateral trade, China will use back channels to ward off risk of regime collapse.