Politics and medical realities may collide in Tanzania

Subject

Tanzania's COVID-19 policy response.

Significance

Authorities yesterday confirmed 17 more cases of COVID-19, bringing the official total to 49, a notable acceleration in case numbers in what has so far been one of the region’s least-affected countries. However, under-reporting is likely significant and Tanzania’s relatively light approach to containing the virus may invite a much larger crisis.

Impacts

• The political calendar may be disrupted, with a possible delay to the budget and ultimately the October 2020 general election.
• Civil instability risks are particularly pronounced in Zanzibar, where anti-government sentiment is high and protests common.
• Even with light restrictions, tourism, which accounts for almost 30% of total exports, will be hard hit.