Ukraine battles virus, political and default risks

Significance

As well as causing economic and business disruption, the crisis has virtually put the political process on hold. Parliament is holding occasional sessions to pass urgent anti-crisis measures, but other controversial legislation is showing up divisions in President Volodymyr Zelensky's camp.

Impacts

• The economic consequences of COVID-19 will test the Zelensky administration's ability to manage rifts in its own support base.
• The crisis will keep peace talks on hold for a few months, delaying rather than derailing a planned Ukrainian-Russian-German-French summit.
• Passing land and banking laws needs votes from pro-European opposition factions, which will help Servant of the People on an ad hoc basis.