COVID-19 will undermine US foreign ties

Significance

Relationships with allies and rivals are being strained under medical supplies competition, and there are worries about whether Washington will be willing to play a global leadership role in handling the crisis and its aftermath, principally the global economic fallout.

Impacts

• Trump will favour the fait accompli over consensus-building in policy decisions during COVID-19.
• Beijing and Washington will stop rhetorical conflict and step up trade talks if this will aid economic recovery.
• COVID-19 restrictions will inhibit US military capacity, and could invite attacks on forces overseas.
• There will be calls to 'reshore' US medical production from overseas.