UAE's bolstering of Libya's Haftar is a risky policy

Significance

Abu Dhabi has long played a leading but quiet role in the Libya conflict, providing extensive military support to LNA leader Khalifa Haftar over the years, violating a UN arms embargo on Libya.

Impacts

• The Berlin peace process and Europe will lose influence and relevance in a worsening security environment.
• A prolonged conflict gives Russia more opportunity to entrench at low cost, increasing the likelihood of a long-term ‘frozen conflict’.
• Algeria and Tunisia may be provoked to step up diplomatic action, as they face the prospect of prolonged instability on their doorstep.
• The LNA’s oil embargo will continue, harming mainly ENI and Repsol, and possibly provoking fighting around oil terminals.