UN envoy departure will undermine Libya peace talks

Significance

The draft ceasefire agreement has been in the works since before the UN Special Representative of the Secretary-General (UNSRSG) to Libya, Ghassan Salame, launched a dialogue in January that aimed to end the civil war. The dialogue process has stalled. Many politicians are boycotting political talks and Salame himself resigned on March 2, adding to the complexity.

Impacts

• Violations of the arms embargo on both sides will continue with impunity.
• Drone and artillery attacks on Tripoli could intensify, leading to an escalation in fighting.
• France may step in to lead peace negotations, but is unlikely to make progress as it is not a neutral arbiter -- it favours Haftar.