London will diverge from the EU on foreign policy

Subject

UK foreign policy.

Significance

Last week the EU and United Kingdom published their negotiating objectives for the future relationship. The European Commission’s negotiating mandate largely reflects the Political Declaration, including a desire for close formal cooperation in defence, security and foreign policy. The United Kingdom’s objectives indicate that it wants less formal cooperation as it seeks to de-institutionalise its relationship with the bloc.

Impacts

• The economic impact of Brexit could cut the size of the UK defence budget, which has already fallen more than 10% in real terms since 2010.
• The absence of formal channels of EU-UK cooperation and coordination could result in a weakening of the EU’s sanctions regime on Russia. 
• The re-election of US President Donald Trump would herald a further four years of transatlantic tensions.