China COVID-19 outbreak will weaken Xi

Subject

The political impact of the coronavirus outbreak in China.

Significance

The extreme measures the Communist Party has taken in response to the COVID-19 outbreak are partly designed to instill faith in its governing capacity among ordinary citizens, but inertia and slow decision-making at every level have revealed a gap between official rhetoric and reality.

Impacts

• China will increasingly treat public health as a matter of state security; regulation and more involvement by senior officials will follow.
• The main risk to political stability is indirect, via the outbreak’s negative effect economic growth and employment.
• Despite signs of public outrage, protests are unlikely due to the risk of contamination and intense activity by the security services.