Ceasefire may ultimately dislodge Turkey from Syria

Significance

Over the last two months, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has deployed Turkish military resources to Libya and the Syrian governorate of Idlib in an attempt to prevent Ankara’s allies and proxies from being overrun by superior forces. Both initiatives have been poorly formulated, shaped more by personal ambition than Turkey’s capabilities, and have reinforced already serious concerns about decision-making in the presidential palace.

Impacts

• Tensions in Idlib will mean further compartmentalisation, rather than a complete breakdown, in the Ankara-Moscow relationship.
• Turkey will still purchase Russian S-400 air defence systems, but they may become operational later than the scheduled date of April 2020.
• Russia’s completion of Turkey’s first nuclear power station may be further delayed though economic relations will be largely unaffected.
• Despite tensions with Russia, there is no prospect of much improvement in relations with the West while Erdogan is in power.
• Turkey will be neither willing nor able to intervene decisively in the Libyan conflict.