Russia's Putin wants success without policy re-think

Subject

The Russian leader's strategy for self-preservation, transition and economic success.

Significance

President Vladimir Putin's plan for constitutional change gives him time to decide which of several options to choose ahead of 2024. Whether that time will provide him with favourable conditions for a transition from formal to informal leadership, or simply creates new uncertainties, will depend on the policy choices made over the next year. Putin has offered new childcare benefits to make his core electorate less unhappy, as opinion polls suggest Russians' faith in him is falling.

Impacts

• Putin will retain direct control of strategic and security policymaking while delegating economic management.
• The 2021 polls are a pivot point towards a consolidation of power around or away from the presidency, depending on the experiment's success.
• In the short term, the constitutional plebiscite in April will be seen by the Kremlin and opposition alike as a general vote of confidence.
• Former Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev is 'parked' as deputy chair of the Security Council, with high status and few responsibilities.