Vietnam may have some leverage over China through 2020

Subject

Complex relations between Vietnam and China.

Significance

The Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) will hold its 13th National Congress in 2021. The congress will elect the CPV’s 200-member central committee, which in turn will elect a 19-member Politburo. Meanwhile, Vietnam continues to push back on China’s territorial and jurisdictional claims in the South China Sea.

Impacts

• Nguyen Phu Trong may retire as CPV general secretary in 2021, but he will be keen to ensure his faction retains power.
• As ASEAN’s 2020 chair, Vietnam will try to preserve strong ASEAN-China relations while adopting a tougher stance over the South China Sea.
• Hanoi may allow more port visits to Vietnam by US warships.