Elections are unlikely to help resolve Mali conflict

Significance

The move to hold the long-delayed elections is an outcome of the Inclusive National Dialogue that concluded on December 22. The elections, assuming they take place as scheduled, could enhance the domestic and international legitimacy of the National Assembly and restore some confidence among neighbouring states and other stakeholders that political progress is taking place. This will only happen if the elections are not badly marred by violence and a low turnout.

Impacts

• The post-election landscape will give some indication of leading contenders and factions in advance of the 2023 presidential election.
• Former Prime Minister Soumeylou Boubeye Maiga may consider a presidential bid if his party does well.
• The dialogue process glossed over territorial administration issues, but they will be key to resolving the conflict.