Iran's Afghan friends likely to avoid anti-US action

Subject

Iranian capacity to mobilise Afghan clients.

Significance

The death of Qassem Soleimani, head of Iran's foreign expeditionary force, is a blow to Tehran's networks in Afghanistan, especially as this was one of its first arenas for engaging with Sunni militants including the Taliban as well as traditional Shia partners. The Quds Force, the external action wing of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC), is facing choices in Afghanistan, where its clients offer little loyalty for the money they receive.

Impacts

• At a time of isolation and vulnerability, Tehran may seek to work with Russia on a settlement for Afghanistan.
• Iran would have nothing to gain if the Taliban began to look capable of capturing Kabul.
• Iran's view of Afghanistan will extends beyond the Shia focus seen elsewhere.