Canada Conservative leadership race beckons

Significance

Under outgoing leader Andrew Scheer, the Conservatives won the popular vote in the October 2019 federal election, but not a majority of seats. The new leader will lead the party into the next election, and because the Liberals now, post-October, govern as a minority, that election will likely come before October 2023.

Impacts

• The Liberal government will last until at least the middle of this year: the Conservatives want their new leader first.
• To trigger an election, the Conservatives will need other parties’ support, most likely to come from the NDP.
• An eastern-Canadian Conservative leader could see further western-Canadian political alienation and separatist sentiment.
• The Conservatives will likely soften their opposition to the federal carbon tax.
• The Conservatives will also likely soften their opposition to socially divisive issues such as abortion and gay marriage.