A new US-Iran war will play out in Iraq and beyond

Significance

The operation, authorised by US President Donald Trump, killed Qassem Soleimani, longstanding chief of the Quds Force -- the external action wing of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC). Others also died, notably Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the leader of Iran-backed Iraqi militia Kata’ib Hezbollah, which had been targeted in earlier US strikes.

Impacts

• Baghdad’s parliament will consider a bill to evict the US military presence.
• The confrontation with Iran will undermine efforts to combat the residual Islamic State presence.
• As the responses play out, oil prices are likely to rise further.
• The 2015 Iran nuclear deal could at last collapse.
• Damascus may increase its dependence on Moscow in the absence of Soleimani’s personal networks.