Prospects for the global economy in 2020

Subject

Prospects for the global economy in 2020.

Significance

Global GDP growth in 2020 is likely to edge above this year’s 3%, provided that employment and wage gains remain firm and trade and investment continue to stabilise. Even if a US-China ‘phase one’ trade deal is agreed, world trade will not bounce back. Moreover, productivity is deteriorating in the United States and United Kingdom and is flat elsewhere, potentially exacerbating weak investment. Looser monetary policy will shore up rather than raise global growth and there is little sign of the larger economies markedly expanding fiscal policy.