Canada’s re-elected Trudeau will vie for allies

Significance

Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives increased their number of seats and won the popular vote, but the non-proportional voting system prevents them winning government. Jagmeet Singh’s New Democratic Party (NDP) performed reasonably but lost seats in Quebec to Bloc Quebecois, this election’s most unambiguous victors. Negotiations are underway to determine with whose support the Liberals will now govern.

Impacts

• Western provinces’ alienation could escalate into demands for separation from Canada or new constitutional arrangements.
• Quebec will likely demand and gain more rights and autonomy in the federation, but not call for another independence referendum.
• Scheer will face Conservative leadership challenges but will likely remain party leader.
• The Trans Mountain pipeline will retain Liberal backing and be constructed.