Guinea’s constitutional crisis may escalate further

Significance

The National Front for the Defence of the Constitution (FNDC) coalition, a grouping of opposition parties and civil society groups, has vowed to continue protests until the government drops its plans. A referendum over a new constitution could be held as early as December alongside planned legislative elections.

Impacts

• The crisis could put the economy under growing pressure, resulting in reduced international investment and potential aid freezes.
• The worsening economic climate could see public-sector strikes intensify, particularly in the education sector.
• Persistent protests may trigger defections from the governing Rally of the Guinean People (RPG) and its allies.
• A potential compromise is that Conde pursues a new constitution as a legacy project, while agreeing to abandon any third-term bid.