Hezbollah and Israel will avoid intentional escalation

Significance

Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah -- a Shia militant group and political party -- last month announced that the organisation would shoot down any Israeli drones in Lebanese airspace and declared that its conflict with Israel had entered a ‘new phase’. Nasrallah also said Hezbollah would no longer adhere to self-imposed restrictions confining attacks to the Shebaa Farms (a small area of disputed territory held by Israel). That followed an Israeli airstrike that killed two Hezbollah members in Syria and subsequent alleged drone and air attacks inside Lebanon. Hezbollah responded by targeting an Israeli military vehicle travelling near the border -- the first incident of its kind since 2015.

Impacts

• Hezbollah will be wary that any confrontation could jeopardise its strengthened political position inside Lebanon.
• Dealing with tensions through limited, face-saving retaliatory actions nonetheless carries a risk of miscalculation.
• Israel will prioritise diplomacy and strikes against supply lines outside Lebanese territory to disrupt Hezbollah’s weapons programmes.
• Further Israeli strikes on targets in Lebanon or Hezbollah strikes outside the Shebaa Farms area will be indicators of increasing risk.