Southern Libya will be more restive

Significance

Warlord Khalifa Haftar’s military offensive to take control of Tripoli has stalled for six months on the city’s outskirts. Essential to Haftar’s ambitions is full control of southern Libya, the Fezzan region, which has been drawn into the battle for Tripoli.

Impacts

• Lawlessness in Fezzan exposes Libya’s coastal cities (hosting most of the population) to debilitating shortages of fuel and water.
• Haftar risks losing the support of his foreign allies, particularly his main sponsor, the UAE, if he fails to finish the assault on Tripoli.
• Further clashes in the south are probable -- especially if there is external interference.