Ukraine talks back on track with no clear way forward

Significance

The summit was delayed when a routine 'contact group' meeting failed to produce a common commitment to the 'Steinmeier formula' for moving towards pace. Moscow blamed Kyiv, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's chief aide signalled a shift of position three days later by saying the 'Steinmeier formula' would be written into national legislation.

Impacts

• Zelensky's foreign policy is complicated by US developments around his phone call with President Donald Trump; he will avoid comment.
• Zelensky has re-committed to four-party-only talks, rowing back on earlier talk of imminent US involvement.
• Nationalists and former combatants remain a constraint on any Ukrainian leader hoping for compromise.
• Even a successful settlement in eastern Ukraine would leave Crimea unresolved; Russia will not give ground there.