ASEAN will fear to resist China's maritime expansion

Subject

An ongoing confrontation between Chinese and Vietnamese vessels in the South China Sea.

Significance

A Chinese energy survey ship has been operating between the disputed Spratly Islands and the Vietnamese coast since July. The operation, mostly in waters to which Beijing has no plausible claim under international law, has attracted a series of protests from Hanoi and a strongly worded statement from the United States.

Impacts

• China's artificial islands will enable more resource exploration.
• China could use such operations to press South-east Asian claimants into joint development agreements.
• Beijing will try to press other claimants not to pursue energy development with US firms.
• Regional states will remain reluctant to criticise China for such actions while the Trump and Duterte administrations are in power.