Africa may ‘win’ more from US-China tariffs than ASEAN

Subject

Relative 'winners' from Sino-US trade conflict.

Significance

While early analysis of the trade conflict suggested that diversion opportunities might create ‘winners’, notably in ASEAN, there has been little sign of such gains. However, some countries are still seeing export sales grow and may emerge as relative winners. Notably, Vietnam’s exports are outperforming other ASEAN members and over the medium term Africa has a chance to buck the global trend.

Impacts

• Falling imports are outpacing export losses in some nations, confusing the picture as trade is appearing to contribute to GDP growth.
• Tracking how much of global growth weakness is due to the tariffs is tricky as business investment and trade have long been sluggish.
• Tariffs and other disruptions including sanctions and Brexit will give firms many reasons to review their plans and reposition globally.