Turkey-US talks over Syrian ‘safe zone’ will drag on

Significance

The plans are currently the subject of intensive discussions with the United States. For Erdogan, the safe zone is seen as key to boosting his flagging domestic popularity and defusing growing social tensions over Syrian refugees in Turkey. The outcome will have major repercussions not only for the future of US military involvement in Syria but also for Turkish-US bilateral ties.

Impacts

• A final deal would help protect US Kurdish allies against Turkey, damaging Erdogan’s support among ultranationalists.
• A threatened unilateral Turkish invasion would be hugely costly, both politically and militarily.
• Erdogan cannot relocate sufficient numbers of refugees to north-east Syria to defuse domestic social tensions.
• Although it is content to stoke US-Turkish tensions, Russia will want to avoid Turkey increasing the Syrian territory it occupies.
• If his ambitions are frustrated in north-east Syria, Erdogan will compensate with a domestic crackdown on Kurds.