UK Parliament is unlikely to stop no-deal Brexit

Significance

Members of Parliament (MPs) opposed to a no-deal Brexit have won a crucial vote that will allow them to take control of the parliamentary timetable today and table a motion to block a no-deal Brexit on October 31, which they are expected to win.

Impacts

• If legislation is not approved before prorogation, it will be wiped out, as a new parliamentary session will commence on October 14.
• An early general election could prove, in effect, a second referendum on Brexit.
• The Conservatives, following the deselection of dissidents, will have a much clearer Brexit strategy in the election than the Labour Party.
• Under a no-deal scenario, London would be negotiating the future UK-EU relationship with less leverage as a non-member state.
• Brexit, deal or no deal, will be the prelude to the negotiation of a final relationship with the EU that could prove highly contentious.