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Pakistan will bide its time over Kashmir crisis

Tuesday, September 3, 2019

Subject

Pakistan's response to India's recent Kashmir move.

Significance

Pakistan last week carried out a training launch of a surface-to-surface ballistic missile. The test raises questions about the (politically powerful) military’s intentions towards neighbour and enemy India, which early last month irked Islamabad by revoking Jammu and Kashmir state’s special constitutional status. Meanwhile, Pakistan is trying to support peace talks between the United States and the Taliban and aiming, by October, to extricate itself from an international watchlist of jurisdictions with weak measures against terrorist financing.

Impacts

  • China will maintain support for ally Pakistan but discourage an escalation of military tensions in South Asia.
  • The United States will urge Pakistan and India to back a settlement in Afghanistan.
  • India will continue to maintain restrictions on communications and movement in the Kashmir Valley.
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