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PiS cannot count on winning Polish elections outright

Monday, September 2, 2019

Significance

The October 13 parliamentary election will be one of the most important and consequential since 1989. If PiS wins, it will entrench and continue pushing ahead with its radical state reform programme and more assertive approach to EU and foreign policy. If the opposition wins, it is likely to try to reverse PiS reforms and remove its supporters from key state posts, but it will probably form a weak and unstable government and its legislative programme could be undermined by the PiS-supported president.

Impacts

  • If PiS is returned to office, it will press on with its programme of purging all vestiges of the communist period.
  • It may find the von der Leyen European Commission less critical of democratic backsliding than its predecessor.
  • Assuming no change in economic policy, growth will slow because of external factors, while remaining well above the EU average rate.
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