Eastern violence focuses Chad’s attention on Sudan

Significance

President Idriss Deby in May dismissed the previous sultan and five other hereditary rulers over alleged incompetence. Deadly clashes in Ouaddai and the neighbouring region of Sila over recent months resulted in dozens of deaths and the imposition of a three-month state of emergency in those two regions on August 18. Many of those involved in the violence are herders belonging to Deby’s own Zaghawa ethnic group. Deby fears a spill-over of instability from across the border in Sudan, as politics in Khartoum shift rapidly in the wake of President Omar al-Bashir’s ouster.

Impacts

• Deby’s reliance on France will likely intensify, both within Chad and abroad.
• Authoritarianism and harsh treatment for dissidents and rebels will persist.
• Violence in the Lake Chad area from jihadist groups is likely to increase.