Qatar faces difficult balancing act in ties with Iran

Significance

Escalating tensions between the United States and Iran threaten to derail Qatar's delicate geostrategic position as a small, albeit wealthy, fish in a big pond. Qatar has much to lose should a war, accidental or otherwise, break out in the Gulf.

Impacts

• Should the security situation deteriorate, major LNG importers including China could reduce exposure to Qatari supply by looking elsewhere.
• Qatar will fear that even if it stays neutral diplomatically, its role as host of a major US base could drag it into a conflict.
• Turkey is likely to leverage the situation to its advantage by pushing to deepen commercial and military linkages with Qatar.